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Box Office Preview for August 28th Weekend

This weekend, we see some interesting compeition at the box office. Horror fans will get thier fill as both Halloween 2 and The Final Destination open up. The other competiion places Roadside attractions against itself in the PTA with The September Issue and Mystery Team.

The Final Destination franchise has always beena guilty pleasure of mine. It features camp comedy and crazy death scenes. Now to close out the franchise, it s in 3D, a notable big seller which has helped out such films like Up, Monsters vs. Aliens, and even spawned concert films like Hannah montana and the Jonas Brothers. Overall the franchise has been very consistent in terms of total gross, average 51M total from the 3 films, however they all recieved good legs for a horror film, with the latest inenoyjing a 2.84X. I think with the 3D release, the rush facotr for it being the final installment, and the growth the franchise has had, that it will open to around 25M. Inglourious Basterds was very well recieved but in this day and age dropping 50%-60% in the second weekend is the norm for large high profile release films. I have it dropping 54% this weekend.

Halloween 2 is the follow up to the well received breakout hit of Halloween, that opened up over Labor day weekend. It capitalized on being the only horror film on the market and by having weak competition. This time around the road is much different. It has another tentpole to deal with and it is from the same genre. Unfortunately, there is a breadth of R rated films in the market, some new and some old, and unfortunately, I think this film is going to take it on the chin. I have it opening at 17M.

Also opening wide on the weekend is Ang Lee’s Taking Woodstock. I think that is great idea since it could play as great counterprogramming to the deathfests in the theaters nearby. Unfortunately, it will not be in enough theaters to make a huge dent int he box office but with a small budget (30M) and high profile names like Ang Lee and Academy Award nominated Imelda Staunton, it should bring in the crowds. I think it will open to around 2M in 1,323 theaters.

In the limited release front, there is Patton Oswalt starrer Big Fan, that reviewed praise in Sundance. It is also First Independent Pictures first picture in distribution. Congratulations! Also Roadside Attractions brings 2 films for us, Mystery Team and The September Issue. In the betting pool, i am taking The September Issue to take the PTA weekend with around 8,500 PTA.

Addemdum: Whoops. I made a mistake a couple of posts ago when I said that The Devil Wears Prada was based on Anna Winotaur who worked at Vanity Fair. It’s actually Vogue.